The Impact of Automation on the Malay/Muslim Community

The best international research suggests three learning points relevant for the Malay/Muslim community:

First, jobs which rely on routine and systematic tasks, whether based in the office or the workshop, are the most vulnerable to automation, because computers are particularly good at accurately performing routine tasks. In many cases, the technology already exists to automate these jobs, and it is only a matter of relative costs. As wages rise in Singapore and the costs of automation fall, more routine jobs will be outsourced.

Second, new advances in robotics and computing power have enabled complex, non-routine tasks, ranging from driving to accounting, to become automatable in the near future. Workers who hold these medium-skilled jobs need to understand that as technology improves, the more costly and common medium-skilled jobs – such as driving – will become automated first. However, even skilled jobs that require thinking and analysis, such as accounting, research, and financial investing, are also potentially automatable.

Third, jobs which involve social intelligence and human interaction are complemented by automation and hence will remain relevant, regardless of whether those jobs are high-skilled or low-skilled. Therefore, professionals of all types, as well as service workers, will continue to be in demand. However, workers in people-facing jobs will have to increasingly depend on technology to increase their productivity and to stay relevant.

We estimate that about 66% of Malay/Muslim workers in Singapore hold jobs today that are susceptible to automation and computerisation (Figure 1)². Malay/Muslims are significantly more vulnerable than the national population (45% at risk) because they are over-represented in medium-skilled jobs that rely on routine tasks. 17% are in clerical support, 18% in sales and services, and 11% hold skilled manual jobs in plant and machinery operation. While these occupations have provided a gateway to the middle class for many Malay/Muslim families, they are also the most susceptible to computerisation.

A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSING THE RISKS OF AUTOMATION AND COMPUTERISATION

Predicting the effects of automation and computerisation on jobs requires an understanding of the relative capabilities and limitations of technology and how that affects the susceptibility of a job to automation. Figure 2 breaks down jobs along two dimensions: whether the job relies on manual labour versus cognitive skills, and whether the key tasks involved are routine versus non-routine. The first wave of automation and computerisation started in the advanced economies in the 1960s and continued through the early 2000s, affecting jobs which specialised in performing routine and systematic tasks – such as filing records accurately, tabulating numbers, or assembling products (Autor et al., 2003)³. As anyone who has struggled with their smartphone knows, computers are not ‘smart’ in the conventional sense, and simply execute orders given by programmers. Routine and systematic tasks were historically the easiest to programme and automate, and hence were automated first.

Although workers who specialised in routine tasks were rapidly displaced by early automation, higher skilled workers saw their productivity grow because computers made them more effective at their jobs. Workers in management and professional roles, which require deep skills such as analysis, problem-solving, and creativity, benefited because computerisation eliminated the most tedious parts of their jobs. As a result, while middle skill jobs rapidly disappeared from many developed economies, demand for highly skilled professionals continued to grow from the late 1990s through the 2010s (Autor, 2015)⁴.

AUTOMATION TODAY AND IN THE FUTURE

However, deep, complex skills alone are no longer a barrier to automation today. The sophistication and power of computer programmes has grown dramatically over time, driven by a rapid fall in the cost of computing hardware; the average smartphone today has more computing power than a supercomputer of the 1980s⁵. The widespread availability of low-cost computing power, combined with recent advances in machine learning and robotics, has led to automation of even tasks that require deep, complex skills (Frey and Osborne, 2013). For example, the investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co recently developed a programme named “Contract Intelligence” or COIN, which automatically reviews loan contract agreements, replacing 360,000 hours of legal services each year (Son, February 2017)⁶. Such technological breakthroughs may improve the productivity of top managers and lawyers, who can now concentrate on strategic decision making, but obviously replaces an army of skilled junior legal officers in the process. The latest advances in automation are already being piloted and tested in Singapore. Autonomous vehicles are already accepting passengers on a trial basis at One-North (Siong, October 2016)⁷. Other traditional service sector jobs – such as that of security guards – are being reshaped by automation. Concorde Security has developed a mobile command and control unit that monitors up to 30 buildings at once, reducing the manpower requirement from one security guard per building, to only 3 trained employees in the control centre (Law, October 2015)⁸. Further developments in artificial intelligence are likely to enable automatic recognition of trusted occupants, reducing the need for security personnel further. Even the process of making popiah skin has been automated with local manufacturer Mr. Popiah reporting a tenfold improvement in productivity from replacing workers with machinery (Lee, February 2017)⁹.

THE WAY FORWARD FOR THE MALAY/MUSLIM COMMUNITY

Industries which are poised for fundamental change from automation will not disappear from Singapore. Taxis and ride-sharing will still be here when automated cars are commonplace, but the traditional taxi driver will disappear from Singapore, just as the parking attendant has. With 66% of the Malay/Muslim workforce employed in occupations at risk from disruptive technology and automation, employees and employers alike must invest in adopting and complementing technology to raise efficiency and productivity.

To remain competitive, employers need to play their role in identifying potential areas of skills development for workers, especially in areas where their skill-level and job requirements can complement newly-adopted forms of technology. A particularly promising area lies in using technology to help build human-to-human relationships. For example, customer service ambassadors and autonomous vehicle controllers will still be required even when a human taxi driver is no longer needed. Sales representatives can still add value through building customer relationships even when the physical task of logistics fulfilment has been automated from the robotic warehouse to drone delivery.

Workers cannot adapt to the coming changes in the nature of work unless they also take active responsibility for their own lifelong learning. As a starting point, more Malay/Muslims could take advantage of existing Government schemes to help upgrade themselves. Speaker of Parliament Halimah Yacob recently highlighted that out of 126,000 claimants of SkillsFuture Credits in 2016, only 8.4%, or only slightly over 10,000 are Malays – far below their proportion of the population (Hasleen Bachik, January 2017)¹⁰. The reasons for this striking figure must be examined. If the lack of knowledge of skills required for future jobs or re-training programmes is the cause, then employers, the Malay/Muslim organisations, as well as media platforms can aid in bridging the information gap. However, if employees are resisting change, more must be done to identify workers in occupations at high risk of automation, to proactively convince such workers to set their careers on a new path before it is too late. Seemingly secure jobs are no longer secure. We must help to shape the future of work in Singapore, rather than let the future shape us.